Consumers Safekeep Holiday Spirit in 2010

Now for the Hangover

While it looks like Americans spent a bunch more money than many expected this year, we wonder if the sharp drop in consumer confidence reported for December 2010 is a result of their day-after realization of overspending and/or undergifting.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Consumers Safekeep Holiday Spirit in 2010

The latest consumer spending data released today covering holiday shopping activity showed Americans may have lost their jobs in 2010, but they retained their holiday spirit - perhaps at their own cost. Last week, we expressed concern about the weekly sales results, based on the data's benefit from the inclusion of Super Saturday and its absence from the prior year comparable. We expressed concern that the absence of Super Saturday from this week's same-store sales data, versus an inclusive prior year comparable might drive equal and balancing disappointment this Tuesday.

However, ICSC reported that same-store sales for the week ended December 25, increased 4.8% year-to-year. Redbook concurred, noting a 4.6% sales increase. It's important to remember though just how bad last year was. While the stock market had already recovered from the pit, the economy was mired in the mud at the bottom of it. Thus, consumers were not as enthused as investors, though they had certainly benefited from wealth restoral in stocks; at least those who had not sworn off the fever forever. The problem is that many had.

A thoughtful reader of our article at a syndicate site last week offered his view that the day off on Friday might balance out the weakness caused by the absence of Super Saturday from the data. The Christmas weekend was a three-day holiday both years despite the date upon which Christmas fell. However, last year, Christmas Eve fell on Thursday, a full work day, and this year it occurred on Friday, an off-day allowing for last minute shopping for all Americans. So, we thank our reader for pointing out an important offset to our concerns. We witnessed with our own eyes streets full of holiday shoppers Friday on the Upper East Side of New York City. This certainly saved the week.

We also wondered whether the fact that a great deal of Americans had already finished their holiday shopping was good news or bad for retailers, considering they had likely paid less this year while chasing early deals. In the end though, it appears the creative marketing that thrives within the retail sector allowed it to adapt and survive 17% underemployment. Even the blizzard that struck the population dense Northeastern US could not stymie retail marketers, who are extending after Christmas sales to fit. It also certainly helped that the government passed unemployment insurance extensions, giving confidence to folks hanging on the edge.

Today, MasterCard (NYSE: MA) Advisors' SpendingPulse, which measures all retail sales (not just credit purchases), said for the period extending from November 5 through December 24, sales increased 5.5%. The rate of growth compared against 2009's 4.1% holiday pace, and it marked the fastest in five years. However, rates of growth are relative to the base they are measured upon. That said, and despite the easy bar setting, this is still good news.

It just so happens that Consumer Confidence was measured and published by the Conference Board today for the month of December. Putting a damper on things, confidence moved against the trend of the sales data noted today. December's confidence index slipped to 52.0, against the prior period's revised 54.3 and economists' consensus forecast for 57.4 this month, as compiled by Bloomberg. It is likely that this news had the S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT) down fractionally through the hour of publishing. Negative housing price data out of S&P Case Shiller certainly did not help either. Shares of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO) are trading with only fractional variance at the hour of publishing.

We have to wonder if consumer confidence didn't deteriorate due to the perhaps season-swayed spending of Americans that they now regret, realizing only afterwards that they really couldn't afford it. Or maybe they are just bummed about the lesser gifts given and received this year, and the friends and family they had to cut out. I would not read too positively into spirited holiday shopping, as consumers are likely to remain tight-fisted due to necessity moving forward.



Article interests investors in: S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Chicos (NYSE: CHS), Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN), The Gap (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s (NYSE: M), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), TJX Company (NYSE: TJX), Kohls (NYSE: KSS), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Saks (NYSE: SAK), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Builders Firstsource (Nasdaq: BLDR), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Tempur-Pedic International (NYSE: TPX), Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS), Sleepy’s (NYSE: ZZ), Furniture Brands (NYSE: FBN), Natuzzi (NYSE: NTZ), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS), Bon-Ton (Nasdaq: BONT), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Baker’s Footwear (Nasdaq: BKRS.OB), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), The Buckle (NYSE: BKE), Cache (Nasdaq: CACH), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), Destination Maternity (Nasdaq: DEST), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL), Footlocker (NYSE: FL), Gymboree (Nasdaq: GYMB), Guess (NYSE: GES), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), Jones New York (NYSE: JNY), Jos. A Banks (Nasdaq: JOSB), New York & Co. (NYSE: NWY), Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), The Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Finite World of Paul Krugman's Thinking

Paul Krugman claims that the commodity markets are telling us that we're living in an Ehrlich-like finite world of resource scarcity where "the rapid growth of emerging economies is placing pressure on limited supplies of raw materials, pushing up their prices."

And what are the implications of the recent increase in certain commodity prices? According to Krugman, "It's a sign that we’re living in a finite world, one in which resource constraints are becoming increasingly binding."

Don Boudreaux responds and suggests that Krugman study resource economist Julian Simon, and points out that:

"It’s not true that vigorous economic growth necessarily makes resources more scarce.  In fact, history shows that, because of human ingenuity, the opposite is not only possible but prevalent. Since the dawn of the industrial revolution in the mid-18th century, available supplies of coal, petroleum, iron ore, and most other resources have increased significantly – and, as a result, their real prices have fallen." 

MP: The evidence is working against Krugman and in favor of Boudreaux on this one.  The chart above shows the monthly, inflation-adjusted Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index back to January of 1934 (data from Global Financial Data, paid subscription required). The DJ-AIG index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities in five categories with the following weights (individual weights are listed here): 

1. Agriculture (coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar, wheat): 34.37%

2. Energy (crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, unleaded gas): 27.28%

3. Industrial Metals (aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc): 17.65%

4. Precious Metals (gold, silver): 14.60%

5. Livestock (lean hogs, live cattle): 6.10%

(Note: According to Global Financial Data, data in the index from 1933 to 1989 are from the Dow Jones Futures Index, and data from 1990 are from the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index.)

Bottom Line: Over a very long period of time (76 years), there has been a significant downward trend in the real prices of commodities (see red trend line in graph), and the decline in commodity prices has taken place during a period when the world population increased by more than three times, from 2 billion in 1934 to the current population of 7 billion in 2010.  Don asks the right question:

"If economic growth since the industrial revolution coincided with increasing resource supplies, why should we expect that continued economic growth will suddenly start to have the opposite, dreary effects predicted by Mr. Krugman?"

Julian Simon via John Tierney Wins Another Bet

In the summer of 2005, when oil was trading at $60 per barrel (see chart above), there was a bet between Malthusian Matthew R. Simmons (member of the Council on Foreign Relations, head of a Houston investment bank specializing  in the energy industry, and author of “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy”), and New York Times science writer John Tierney, proponent of the Julian Simon school of economics.  

"Peak oil" advocate Simmons predicted in 2005 that the inflation-adjusted price of oil would more than triple over the next five years, and he made a $5,000 bet with Tierney that the average price of oil in 2010 would be at least $200 per barrel in 2005 dollars.  Tierney agreed to share his bet with Julian Simon's widow, who enthusiastically participated in a bet on the real price of a natural resource in the tradition of her late husband, who won the famous bet in 1990 against Malthusian Paul Ehrlich about resource scarcity based on real prices of five commodities selected by Ehrlich and his doomsayer colleagues (see details here). 

Although Mr. Simmons died in August of this year, the representatives of his estate will deliver $5,000 on January 1 to John Tierney and Rita Simon, because the price of oil this year has averaged about $80, or about $70 in inflation-adjusted 2005 dollars (see chart above), which is about 1/3 of the $200 per barrel price predicted by Simmons.   

John Tierney summarizes his economic optimism a la Julian Simon here:

"Giant new oil fields have been discovered off the coasts of Africa and Brazil. The new oil sands projects in Canada now supply more oil to the United States than Saudi Arabia does. Oil production in the United States increased last year, and the Department of Energy projects further increases over the next two decades. The really good news is the discovery of vast quantities of natural gas. It’s now selling for less than half of what it was five years ago. There’s so much available that the Energy Department is predicting low prices for gas and electricity for the next quarter-century.

Maybe something unexpected will change these happy trends, but for now I’d say that Julian Simon’s advice remains as good as ever. You can always make news with doomsday predictions, but you can usually make money betting against them."

Where Do Canadians Go When They Need Experimental Life-Saving Surgery?

Now that's a pretty easy question, and you'll find the answer here.  

HT: Pete Krieger

Markets in Everything: Market-Based Beer Pricing

How much is a pint of beer worth?  Well, why not let market forces determine the price? That's exactly what will happen at Michigan's Kalamazoo Beer Exchange, where a variety of 28 tap beers will be priced according to market demand, and will fluctuate like stock prices in increments of 25 cents. 

Market Movers - China Rates, Oil, AIG, TSLA, CALM, HRB, JTX

Monday's Markets

The day after a blizzard walloped the Northeastern U.S., stock traders somehow managed to borough their way through to Wall Street. With a dearth of economic data, news from China, the BOJ and American corporates mostly moved the market.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: AIG, Nasdaq: CALM, NYSE: M, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: TGT, NYSE: JWN, NYSE: LTD, NYSE: HBC, NYSE: HRB, NYSE: JTX, Nasdaq: AMAP, Nasdaq: SFUN, Nasdaq: DARA, Nasdaq: RPRX, NYSE: GU, AMEX: AVL, NYSE: CBC-PB, Nasdaq: BPAX, Nasdaq: VRML, Nasdaq: PRVT, Nasdaq: BASI, AMEX: TOF, Nasdaq: VLNC, AMEX: ELC, NYSE: MHH, AMEX: REE, Nasdaq: VSCP, Nasdaq: LACO, Nasdaq: WLBC, Nasdaq: SPCHB, Nasdaq: STSA, Nasdaq: JSDA, Nasdaq: ADLR, AMEX: SHZ, Nasdaq: PSDV, Nasdaq: CAEID, Nasdaq: TSLA, Nasdaq: XOMA, Nasdaq: CART, Nasdaq: ARCW, Nasdaq: FFBH, Nasdaq: MBTF, Nasdaq: ACAD, NYSE: LAS, Nasdaq: TNGN, Nasdaq: SBAY, Nasdaq: APRI, Nasdaq: KGJI, Nasdaq: FXEN, Nasdaq: KONE, Nasdaq: ALIM, Nasdaq: DRYS.

Market Movers – China Rates, Oil, AIG, TSLA, CALM, HRB, JTX

Markets remained closed for Christmas in Australia, Canada, the U.K. and Hong Kong, but even with the stymieing snowfall, the NYSE (NYSE: NYX) opened just fine below a buried Wall Street. The big market moving news originated from China today, where the government again raised its benchmark interest rate for the second time in a little more than two months. The announcement came on December 25th, setting the benchmark 1-year lending rate higher by 25 basis points, to 5.81%, and the deposit rate raised by the same amount, to 2.75%. China is dealing with its highest inflation in two years time.

The Bank of Japan published the minutes of its October and November meetings Monday. The BOJ minutes show some members' discontent with the US Fed's quantitative easing. The Bank of Israel kept its key rate steady at 2.0%, meeting the markets' expectation. Annual inflation in Israel in November was marked at 2.3%, falling within the Bank's target range of 1-3%. The government says housing activity slowed at the most recent check, easing some of the pressure on the bank to act.

Commodities Markets

Oil prices garnered some news Monday, rising to a fresh two-year high. Crude prices benefited from rumors that producing nations saw no need for any production boost in the near-term. However, prices fell from their high at $92, toward $91, on concern tied to the Chinese actions to curb inflation. Meanwhile, US and UK representatives expressed disdain with Russia, as Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his business partner Platon Lebedev were found guilty of theft and money laundering by a court in Moscow.

Gold shrugged off the Chinese bank action, with futures for February delivery rising to $1382.90, off some from the December 7 high of $1432.50.

Retail Snowed Out?

From boom to bust, a recently excited investor base has now shifted to concern. We caught a retail sector guru on CNBC calling the loss of the day after Christmas selling opportunity permanent to retailers. Retail stocks from Macy's (NYSE: M) to The Limited (NYSE: LTD), Target (NYSE: TGT) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) showed only fractional variance today, though Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) was off 1.6%. Many retailers will likely offer after-after-Christmas deals in order to make up the miss, in my view. Retail industry creativity is infinite.

Corporate Drivers

The corporate wire was headed by news that AIG (NYSE: AIG) had secured $4.3 billion in credit facilities. The capital raising effort will help the insurance giant free itself from government grips, and the stock rose 11% on the news to a two-year high. This marks the first time AIG has been able to access credit markets since 2008. 36 banks came together to replace the Fed's rescue funding. The stock has doubled year-to-date, but after taking into account its reverse split, AIG still has far to come to return to pre-crisis levels.

Cal-Maine (Nasdaq: CALM) reported earnings today of $0.63, but missed the analysts' consensus peg at $0.72. CALM shares were anything but today, falling 3.6%. The nation's major egg producer exceeded expectations on the revenue line, but its profit margins slipped on higher feed costs. At first glance, I would not be a buyer on today's weakness, as I see agricultural prices only coming under more pressure over the long-term trend-line. Without the proper hedges against this, perhaps CALM is vulnerable to more misses.

Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) shares fell 15%, as about 80% of the company's stock became tradable for the first time on the expiration of the IPO lock-up period. The electric carmaker is under pressure to get its products to the market, and IPO buyers clearly felt the heat to unload shares.

HSBC (NYSE: HBC) was told by bank regulators it can no longer continue a deal with H&R Block (NYSE: HRB), through which the two offered short-term loans to HRB's customers anticipating tax refunds. HBC was off a half point, while HRB dropped 7% on the loss of the important business draw. Jackson-Hewitt Tax Services (NYSE: JTX) is one beneficiary, with its shares up 30% today.

AmBev is splitting its shares 5-for-1 after the close of trading. IPO lockup restrictions expire on AutoNavi Holdings (Nasdaq: AMAP). The EPS schedule includes KV Pharmaceutical (NYSE: KV-A, NYSE: KV-B). SouFun (Nasdaq: SFUN) has a conference call scheduled.

Market movers on the upside included DARA Biosciences (Nasdaq: DARA), Repros Therapeutics (Nasdaq: RPRX), Gushan Environmental Energy (NYSE: GU), Avalon Rare Metals (AMEX: AVL), Capitol Bancorp Ltd. Trust Pfd. (NYSE: CBC-PB), Biosante Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: BPAX), Vermillion (Nasdaq: VRML), Private Media Group (Nasdaq: PRVT), Bioanalytical Systems (Nasdaq: BASI), Tofutti Brands (AMEX: TOF), Valence Technology (Nasdaq: VLNC), Eastern Light Capital (AMEX: ELC), Mastech (NYSE: MHH), Rare Element Resources (AMEX: REE), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), Lakes Entertainment (Nasdaq: LACO), Western Liberty Bancorp (Nasdaq: WLBC), Sport Chalet (Nasdaq: SPCHB), Sterling Financial (Nasdaq: STSA), Jones Soda (Nasdaq: JSDA), Adolor (Nasdaq: ADLR) and China Shen Zhou Mining and Resources (AMEX: SHZ). On the decline: pSividia (Nasdaq: PSDV), China Architectural Engineering (Nasdaq: CAEID), Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA), XOMA (Nasdaq: XOMA), Carolina Trust Bank (Nasdaq: CART), Arc Wireless Solutions (Nasdaq: ARCW), First Federal Bancshares of Ark (Nasdaq: FFBH), MBT Financial (Nasdaq: MBTF), Acadia Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ACAD), Lentuo International (NYSE: LAS), Tengion (Nasdaq: TNGN), Subaye (Nasdaq: SBAY), Apricus Biosciences (Nasdaq: APRI), Kingold Jewelry (Nasdaq: KGJI), FX Energy (Nasdaq: FXEN), Kingtone Wireless Info (Nasdaq: KONE), Alimera Sciences (Nasdaq: ALIM), Dryships (Nasdaq: DRYS).



Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

"Stagehand Scalping" at Carnegie Hall; Where's the Outrage About $450,000 Salaries for Stagehands?

About a year ago, I had a post about "excessive pay" for the unionized stagehands at Carnegie Hall, some of whom made more during the 2007-2008 season by pushing the 9-foot Steinway Model D concert grand piano out onto the stage for a concert than the artist makes for playing the piano.  Financial data for many nonprofit organizations, including salary data for the "highest paid employees and their compensation," are available at the website GuideStar. Here's the link to The Carnegie Hall Corporation listing at GuideStar.

For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2009, the top five highest paid Carnegie employees were all stagehands making an average of $359,000 in base compensation (see chart above).  A more detailed analysis of Carnegie Hall's 2008 tax return reveals that each of the five stagehands earned an additional $100,000 in deferred compensation for 2008, bringing their total yearly compensation amounts to:

Dennis O'Connell (properties manager): $524,332
James Csollany (carpenter): $461,174
John Cardinale (electrician): $438,828
Kenneth Beltrone (carpenter): $432,655
John Goodson (electrician): $425,105    

That's a total annual compensation for the five Carnegie stagehands of $2,280,000, or $456,000 each.   How to explain these excessive above-market wages? Easy, the stagehands are members of one of the oldest and most powerful NYC labor unions - The International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees - which exercised its union muscle in 2007 by striking and shutting down 26 Broadway shows for almost three weeks, at an estimated cost to NYC of about $40 million. 

There's a lot of outrage and attention directed towards "excessive CEO pay," judging by the 153,000 Google hits for that phrase, which is 270 times more than the 567 Google hits for the phrase "excessive union pay."  As I mentioned in the previous post, musicians and promoters frequently blame "ticket scalpers" for raising ticket prices, but maybe "stagehand scalping" deserves some of the blame for high concert ticket prices?! 

Europe Leading Index:Continued Expansion in 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the Euro Area increased by 0.7% in November to 114.3, following a 0.3% increase in October and no change in September.

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board senior economist for Europe: “The LEI for the Euro Area reaccelerated in November and points to a continued expansion in economic activity during the first half of 2011. But, the strengths have not been very widespread. Downside risks still dominate the outlook, and the planned government budget cuts will increasingly create a drag on growth. The divergence between the LEIs for Germany and Spain is a further reminder that the improvement in economic conditions will remain uneven.” 

The Conference Board also reported last week that the Leading Index for Mexico increased sharply in October by 1.5%, following a 0.3% increase in September and a 0.5% increase in August.  Except for Spain and Japan, all other 9 LEIs reported by the Conference Board are showing positive signs of future growth (Australia, China, Euro Area, France, Germany, Korea, Mexico, UK and US). 

Balancing the Budget Requires Spending Restraint and Pro-Growth Policies, Not Higher Tax Rates

Scott Grannis has a great post about the pro-cyclical pattern of federal tax revenues, illustrating graphically above the huge increase in tax revenues recently due to the economic rebound.  Historically, tax revenues as a share of GDP have been fairly constant, despite large variations in the top marginal tax rate, see the chart below. 

This analysis leads Scott to conclude that:

"There is every reason to think that federal (and state and local) revenues will continue to grow at a relatively high rate as long as the economy continues to recover. Balancing the budget doesn't require higher tax rates, it just requires spending restraint and pro-growth policies. Holding spending constant, and assuming revenues grow at their current rate, the federal budget would be balanced in 5-6 years. If the new Congress can't make a significant move in this direction (i.e., holding the line on spending and keeping tax rates as low as possible), they deserve to be trounced in the next election."

20 Things That Became Obsolete This Decade

From the Huffington Post:

"The last ten years have brought us a windfall of new gadgets and gizmos, and with them, a new way of life. Since 2000, we've gained iPods and iPads, Travelocity and Twitter, Facebook and Foursquare, BlackBerry smartphones and Android devices, Xboxes and Wiis, among many other new services, sites, and electronics. We're now poking, tweeting, Googling, and Skyping.

But in that time we've also changed our habits and lost a few things, too. As we look forward to 2011, HuffPostTech has taken a look back at the 20 things that have become obsolete this decade."

Check out the list here, includes dial-up Internet, newspaper classifieds, maps, watches, travel agents, VCRs and VHS tapes, etc.   

Vacancy Project Officer

PTT-GE GROUP

Urgently Required

Get your dreams careers

A Palm Oil Company located in West Kalimantan is inviting qualified candidate to join our team as:

   Project Officer 

 

 Main Responsibilities:

• Coordinating project preparation (project budget planning, schedule, port-folio [content curriculum program, model, etc.], resource planning, project productivity, and project logistics).
• Coordinating project execution.
• Coordinating the monitoring and evaluation of project performance/productivity.
• Consolidating customer feedbacks.
• Consolidating the reports of project productivity.

Job Requirements:

• At least Bachelor Degree from Reputable University, preferably Degree in area of Engineering/Management/Business.
• Minimum 2 years in coordinating and managing some projects as Project Officer/Coordinator.
• Excellent Proficiency in English, both writing and spoken.
• Hands on with office application (Word, Excel, Power Point, Visio, and Project).
• Strong communication and presentation skill, previous experience in working with expatriate will be advantageous.
• Strong Leadership.
• Strong Project Management Skill.
• Strong Time Management skills
• Strong Coaching and Counseling Skill.
• Having knowledge in ISO 9001 / 14001,TQM, QCC, Six Sigma, Lean Manufacturing is an advantage

Employment Type : 1 Years Contract

Please send your completed resume in words file with recent photograph, latest two weeks after the ads.

Email to: hr@mar.co.id

 "One of the most tragic things I know about human nature is that all of us tend to put off living. We are all dreaming of some magical rose garden over the horizon-instead of enjoying the roses blooming outside our windows today."
Dale Carnegie

 

so dont waste this time to get good employment ( job ). Other fields such as in banking need this job position.

Current Labor Market Recovery and Job Creation Are Outpacing the 1990-91 and 2001 Recoveries

According to a new study from the Joint Economic Committee based on employment data through November, "the recovery from the Great Recession continues, and is occurring more quickly than the recoveries from the 2001 and 1990-1991 recessions."

Here's an excerpt:

"Despite the severity of job losses during the Great Recession, the current labor market recovery is outpacing the last two recoveries.  A focus on private-sector job growth during this recovery as compared to the last two recoveries illuminates this point. In all three recoveries, the labor market continued to shed jobs even after economic activity accelerated. However, private sector job growth in the current recovery began substantially sooner than in the recovery from the 1990-1991recession and in the recovery from the 2001 recession. The private sector began adding jobs 16 months after the official end to the Great Recession, in comparison with 18 months after the 1990-1991 recession and 30 months after the 2001 recession (see chart above). Total non-farm job growth during the current recovery has been less steady, but this unevenness is due almost entirely to declines in government-sector employment (see chart below)."

HT: Steve Bartin of The Newsalert Blog. 

Film & Theatre, by Karageorge

Penelope Karageorge

Columnist

Film & Theatre

A freelance journalist, Penelope Karageorge writes frequently about film and theatre. She is the author of a crime novel, Murder at Tomorrow (Walker Publishing), Stolen Moments (Pinnacle Press) and a poetry collection, Red Lipstick and the Wine-Dark Sea (Pella Publishing). Her short stories have been published in journals as diverse as Mouth Full of Bullets and The Charioteer. Penelope began her career as a Newsweek reporter, interviewing luminaries including Bette Davis and Cary Grant. She was publicity director of People magazine. She's currently developing her original film script, a romantic comedy set on the Greek island of Lemnos, Drinking the Sun.

"It is our great pleasure to welcome this accredited reporter to our family of columnists. Penelope, like so many of our writers, is someone we share coffee and commentary with regularly, and whose company we enjoy. We are absolutely thrilled to bring her critical film and theatre reviews to you, for the coloring of your cultural life."

Markos N. Kaminis

Penelope's Articles:

Full Disclosure: Penelope has agreed to Wall Street Greek policy to avoid the authoring of articles about securities she personally owns or holds beneficial interest in. In the event of a special case, we expect Penelope will make full disclosure of ownership or beneficial interest, which is her responsibility. The work of contributors to Wall Street Greek is their own, and may not necessarily agree with the opinion of the site or its founder, and does not constitute financial advice. Please see our full disclosure at Wall Street Greek.

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Living the Good Life: The Good Old Days Are Now

Here's another comparison of consumer purchasing power in the 1960s versus today, based on the time cost of common household appliances like a kitchen oven. The Sears Kenmore oven pictured below retailed for $330 in 1966, which would represent 121.3 hours of work (about three weeks) at the average hourly wage in that year (ignoring taxes).  

At the current average hourly wage of $19.10, today's average consumer would earn a little more than $2,300 working 121.3 hours, and would be able to furnish their entire kitchen with the new appliances pictured below (click to enlarge) from Best Buy including a high-efficiency front-loading washing machine, super capacity gas dryer, 30-inch gas stove, 8.8 cubic feet chest freezer, 16.5 cubic foot refrigerator, dishwasher, mid-size microwave and blender:

Measured by what is ultimately most important, the value of our time, household appliances keep getting cheaper and cheaper, thanks to innovation, technology improvements, supply chain efficiencies, increases in productivity and other market-driven efficiencies that drive prices lower and lower year by year. As much as we hear about declines in median income, economic stagnation, the disappearance of the middle class, falling real wages, increasing income inequality, the data tell a much different story: The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting richer.

Facts of the Day: U.S. Auto Industry

After falling in every single year between 1994 and 2009, the market share of the Big Three (GM, Ford and Chrysler) is on pace to increase slightly in 2010 for the first time in 17 years.  Based on year-to-date (YTD) sales through  November from Ward's Automotive, the Big Three will capture about 44% of the U.S. vehicle market this year, up slightly from 43.66% last year (see chart below).  If that happens, it would be the Big Three's first increase in market share since 1993. 
   

Also based on sales data through November from Ward's, the light truck share of the U.S. vehicle market will increase to 50.8% in 2010 from 48.5% last year.  This will be the first time since 2007 that light truck sales will be more than half of all vehicle sales, and the first year since 2005 that the market share of trucks has increased (see chart below). 

Other highlights for the automotive industry include:

1. Capacity Utilization for the U.S. automakers in 2009 was only 45.2%, compared to 62.2% for 2010 (based on full year data).

2. U.S. total vehicle production YTD in 2010 is above last year by 38.7%, from 5.17 million units to 7.17 units.  

3. Vehicle sales in the U.S. this year, at 10.4 million units YTD, are running 11.1% above last year's sales of 9.375 million units.  

Taken together, these facts suggest that the U.S. automotive industry made a strong recovery this year in terms of sales and production, and next year will probably be even better.

Stock Market Closed this Christmas Eve 2010

Some of you may be swearing the stock market was open last year on Christmas Eve, and you are right. Wall Street was open for business last year, because Christmas fell on Friday, and it seems the stock market operators honor the idea of a three-day holiday more than the important Christian celebration, also recognized by Muslims, and enjoyed by nearly all Americans. In 2009 though, the markets did at least close early. However, in 2010, with Christmas falling on Saturday, the three-day national holiday also includes Christmas Eve, and the stock market is closed. In case you were wondering…

Stock Market Closed Christmas Eve

Our Wish List for St. Nicholas:

• To Win the NY Megamillions Lottery of $168 million so we can really get this engine revved up and do some good for mankind in many planned, yet unfunded endeavors.


• A video camera and editing software, so we might begin publishing original video content


• More TV & radio media coverage


• A few more syndicate partners


• A corporate level advertising sponsor or two


• A Forex Market Columnist


• An Options Market Columnist


• A Fixed Income Columnist


• A television made in the last two decades so we can enjoy business news in HD


• A high quality digital camera


• Editorial help


• An investor and/or managing partner for some of our fringe efforts


• Better salesmen so Markos can focus on content


• Better office space with some visibility


• God's blessing and guidance, cause we believe over here


• Improved comedic skill

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Magic and Miracle of the Marketplace: Christmas 1964 vs. 2010 - There's No Comparison

1964 Sears Christmas Catalog

Pictured above are some color TVs from the 627 page 1964 Sears Christmas Catalog, available here at WishbookWeb along with many other Christmas catalogs from 1933 to 1988.  The original prices are listed ($750 for the Sears color TV console and $800 for the more expansive one), and those prices are also shown converted to today's dollars using the BLS Inflation Calculator: $5,300 for the basic console TV model and $5,650 for the more expensive model.   

To put that in perspective, the pictures below illustrate what $5,300 in today's dollars would buy in the 2010 marketplace:

Bottom Line:  For a consumer or household spending $750 in 1964, all they would have been able to afford was a console color TV from the Sears Christmas catalog.  A consumer or household spending that same amount of inflation-adjusted dollars today ($5,300) would be able to furnish their entire kitchen with 8 brand-new appliances (refrigerator, freezer, dishwasher, range, washer, dryer, microwave and blender) and buy 9 state-of-the-art electronic items (laptop, GPS, camera, home theater, plasma HDTV, iPod Touch, Blu-ray player, 300-CD changer and a Tivo recorder).  And of course, even a billionaire in 1964 wouldn't have been able to purchase many of the items that even a teenager can afford today, e.g. laptop, GPS, digital camera.  

As much as we might complain about high unemployment, high taxes, a huge deficit, we have a lot to be thankful for, and we've made a lot of economic progress since the 1960s as the example above illustrates, thanks to the "magic of the marketplace."  

Labor Market Gender Arbitrage: MNCs Profiting From Sexism By Hiring Female Talent in S. Korea

 From The Economist:

"Working women in South Korea earn 63% of what men do. Not all of this is the result of discrimination, but some must be. South Korean women face social pressure to quit when they have children, making it hard to stay on the career fast track. Many large companies have no women at all in senior jobs. This creates an obvious opportunity. If female talent is undervalued, it should be plentiful and relatively cheap. Firms that hire more women should reap a competitive advantage. And indeed, there is evidence that one type of employer is doing just that. 

Jordan Siegel of Harvard Business School reports that foreign multinationals are recruiting large numbers of educated Korean women. In South Korea, lifting the proportion of a firm’s managers who are female by ten percentage points raises its return on assets by one percentage point, Mr. Siegel estimates.  

South Korea is the ideal environment for gender arbitrage. The workplace may be sexist, but the education system is extremely meritocratic. Lots of brainy female graduates enter the job market each year. In time their careers are eclipsed by those of men of no greater ability. This makes them poachable. Goldman Sachs, an American investment bank, has more women than men in its office in Seoul."

MP: Great example of how competitive market forces and the "invisible hand" of profit-seeking firms can correct gender discrimination in the labor market by taking advantage of it and profiting from it.  And it's probably a faster and more effective solution than costly government regulations and legislation.    

HT: Bill Connerly

Careers Corporate Finance Executive

JOB VACANCY

 This is your best careers

 Get it now be the winner
 

SMART TBK, PT

PT SMART Tbk. is an integrated palm-based consumer company under the umbrella of SINAR MAS GROUP, one of well established conglomerate in Indonesia.

P.T. SMART Tbk. has been embarking on a major management innovation program to create a high performance Olympic Culture. For this objective we wish to recruit dynamic, highly motivated and committed candidates for future leaders in our several business units.

Corporate Finance Executive 

 

Strong Finance background with 5-7 years working experience in corporate finance, business development, corporate valuation, public accounting  firm or multinational company.

Experience in Merger & Acquisition Deal execution is preferred

Strategic thinkerbut also an executor, with strong communication skills

English proficiency is a must

Smart, committed, energetic, team player, proactive with good working attitude

Candidate with international exposure as well as MBA would be preferred

Mobile and flexible to travel overseas for projects and should be committed to be stationed overseas, if it is required

Open for local and expatriate professionals

to apply, kindly e-mail or post your CV to:

PT.SMART Tbk

Plaza BII, Tower II, 10th Floor

JL.M.H.Thamrin no. 51, Jakarta 10350

Indonesia

“There are two things that you should always do in any place you work. The first is to add value to your workplace and the second is to add value to yourself.”

, so dont waste this time to get good employment ( job ). Other fields such as in banking need this job position.

Why Not Make It A Green Holiday? Give a Climate-Friendly Green Gift of Carbon Offsets This Year

Doing some last minute Christmas shopping and looking for a special gift for that special friend or relative who seems to have everything? Well, why not reduce their carbon footprint and buy them a carbon offset certificate this year? Make it a Green Holiday, find out more here.

Just in case it wasn't obvious, I'm only joking about this....

Training College Graduates for Dependency By Counterfeiting Genuine Accomplishment

Some excerpts from "The College Degree Fraud," by Robert Weissberg, Professor of Political Science-Emeritus, University of Illinois:

"For more than a half-century, government has tried to close racial gaps in educational attainment. Sad to say, those gaps have proven intractable. Nevertheless, the impulse remains as heartfelt as ever (perhaps due to its financially lucrative character), but the emphasis is now shifting from actual learning to equality of graduation rates. President Obama has spoken of adding 5 million graduates to the workforce by 2020, and credential-mania is now all the rage. This shift is a disaster in the making; imparting knowledge is commendable, but just handing out diplomas is harmful deception. A cynic might aver that the shift from knowledge to graduation rates is a tacit admission that the gap-closing quest is futile.

That today's college degrees, regardless of the recipient's race, are increasingly "manufactured" versus reflecting real learning is strongly suggested by a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Specifically, contemporary "college graduates" are increasingly employed in positions once occupied by high school graduates.

For example, in 1992, 17.6% of all college graduates were in positions classified as "noncollege level jobs." By 2008, this percentage had doubled to 35.2%. In 1992, some 119,000 waiters and waitresses had college degrees; by 2008, this number had soared to 318,000. No doubt, unprepared black students who owe their diplomas to intense institutional effort and deception have fared even worse in today's difficult job market. In a sense, America's long quest for both educational equality and excellence is being satisfied by a combination of gullibility, linguistic trickery, and craven opportunism.

Ill-prepared black students are the real losers in this deception, and one can only speculate why their liberal "friends" tolerate the dishonesty. Many would have been better-advised to enroll in a trade school and acquire a well-paid, marketable skill. In the long run, if a college degree is the aim, a "tough love" strategy of requiring passing arduous courses with modest outside help would be more beneficial. Surely President Obama has encountered these subterfuges in his academic career and must realize that calling for more and more diplomas will only increase the supply of college-educated waiters.

Some exceptions aside, granting ever more college diplomas only signifies the power of today's universities to counterfeit genuine accomplishment. Particularly worrisome is that many of these graduates have been trained for dependency. Picture these graduates navigating a cruel world deprived of role models, mentors, counselors, sympathetic evaluators, resource centers, pre-job bridge programs, and bosses unwilling to substitute ego-enhancing identity politics for difficult work."

Facts of the Day: From Forced-Union to RTW States

Based on the results of the 201o Census, eight U.S. states will gain a total of 12 House districts, and 10 states will lose those 12 Congressional seats.  

Fact 1: Of the 8 states that will gain districts (Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Texas, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Washington), all states except Washington are Right-to-Work states.   

Fact 2: Of the 10 states that will lose districts (Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, and New Jersey), all states except Iowa and Louisiana are Forced-Unionism states.  

Fact 3: Right-to-work states had a net gain of 9 House seats (gain of 11, loss of 2), and Forced-Unionism states had a net loss of 8 House seats (gain of 1, loss of 9). 

Consumer Spending Above Pre-Recession Level

Real personal consumption expenditures increased by 2.77% in November from a year earlier, to $9.432 billion, according to today's BEA report.  This was the largest increase in spending since a 2.96% yearly gain in January 2007, and lifted consumption spending above the pre-recession peak of $9.355 billion in December of 2007, when the recession officially started (see chart above).  The U.S. consumer is back. 

New Home Sales November 2010 Review

New Home Market Pathetic

New Homes Sales were reported this morning for November 2010, and according to some, they may have represented a "pivotal turn in the housing market." According to us, that's foolish bull! Housing remains pathetic, especially within the New Home market.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: BAC, OTC: FMCC.OB, OTC: FNMA.OB, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: SRS, NYSE: URE, NYSE: IGR, NYSE: XIN, Nasdaq: RYHRX, Nasdaq: TRREX, NYSE: TOL, NYSE: HOV, NYSE: DHI, NYSE: BZH, NYSE: LEN, NYSE: KBH, NYSE: PHM, NYSE: NVR, NYSE: GFA, NYSE: MDC, NYSE: RYL, NYSE: MTH, NYSE: BHS, NYSE: SPF, NYSE: MHO, AMEX: OHB, NYSE: VNQ, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: JPM, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: ETH, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: WSM, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, AMEX: VAZ, AMEX: NKR, AMEX: MZA, AMEX: NXE, AMEX: NFZ, Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Nasdaq: AVTR, NYSE: AIV, NYSE: EQR, NYSE: AVB, NYSE: UDR, NYSE: ESS, NYSE: CPT, NYSE: SNH, NYSE: BRE, NYSE: HME, NYSE: MAA, NYSE: ELS, NYSE: ACC, NYSE: CLP, Nasdaq: AGNC, NYSE: SUI, NYSE: AEC, NYSE: PMT and AMEX: TWO.

New Home Sales November 2010 Review

The US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) reported on New Home Sales for the month of November 2010 this morning. I could not help but chuckle after reading a report on a respected news provider's website, which expressed joy at the 5.5% growth for the annual pace of sales in November. Many of these websites hire unseasoned writers and editors lacking financial markets experience, and life experience for that matter. I've seen this personally, with a twenty-something editor once completely altering an analysis of mine (recall I was a Senior Analyst); when I complained, the publisher sided with the novice editor, who was an internal employee, versus my freelance status. This is what you are buying into in many surprising instances… And this is a big reason why I've decided to tell truth in this independent fashion. I must warn you that publishers are not paying enough to attract high-level content producers, and I cannot comprehend why anyone would choose to be a business writer today in such an environment. There are more appealing career routes, like perhaps in waste disposal. Seriously, writers make less.

That awesome 5.5% growth in New Home Sales, took the pace of sales to 290K, which is pathetic. However, that fact was unfortunately overlooked by the novice reporter at the aforementioned publisher. Sales overcame a revised October pace of 275K, reduced from 283K. Thus, the growth got a boost from the reduction of the comparable period number. Otherwise, it would have marked a rate of 2.5%, which perhaps the gleeful grunt might not have found so great. Regionally speaking, sales improved in the south and west, while the sales pace declined in the more mature markets of the Northeast and Midwest.

Neither did it faze our fabulous friend that November's sales pace fell short of the consensus estimate taken by Bloomberg's survey of economists, which targeted a level of 300K new home sales. The wrong writer also missed the important fact that sales were down 21.2% from this time last year. In other words, this is a bad report, as I might put it to my peer before I relocated him to sweeping up duties (his story in particular) - if I were his editor. It just bothers me that this kind of work is being taken seriously because of the name atop the website, while our catchy but perhaps comical brand might turn a head or two away before even reading a sentence. It's up to you to get the word out…

The state of the new home market is pathetic, plain and simple, and capital is impossible to find for the smaller builders. Now, well-established and seasoned home builders like Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) use markets like these to go out and buy land on the cheap from troubled smaller developers. That said, TOL is down about 2% at this intraday trading hour, after a week of run-up on a reported profit. The Homebuilders SPDR (NYSE: XHB) is down about a half a point as well, given the wakeup call delivered this week, following a just finalized feeding frenzy.

New home supply moved to 8.2 months, improved from the revised 8.8 months inventory in October. Putting things into proper perspective, supply was at 7.7 months last November. It's important that you realize that housing supply is measured by the rate of sales, and so it is not a simple reading of the number of homes out there built and available for sale. Months matter to property owners, because they pay monthly interest on loans taken out for the purchase of land.

The median and average sales prices of a new home improved in November. Median prices gained to $213K, up from $197,200 in October, but fell from $218,800 at this time last year. Average prices also gained over October, up to $268,700, from $248,700. Average prices were down though from $274,700 last November. We suspect prices improved over October more so due to the attrition of developed properties out there in the wind for sale, and a lack of new development, versus due to a generally improving real estate environment. That said, if properties move at higher pricing, we have an improving environment for builders. Still, prices had dropped significantly from September, and remain below those levels in November. And they're still well below spring levels, which were synthetically lifted by the government's housing tax incentive. I should note that I expect prices to decline further, and this week Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) expressed its concurrence, forecasting real estate will shed another 11% or so through 2012.

We see little robustness in the levels of activity in the categories of development, with homes not started and under construction not showing any signs of life. Eventually, this new home segment of the real estate market will benefit from consolidation and today's underdevelopment resulting from the foreclosure flooded real estate market. This is because of stubborn population growth, a trend of general long-term personal economic improvement, and a labor market that had better improve. However, eventually is not today.



Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS), Ultra Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: URE), ING Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund (NYSE: IGR), Xinyuan Real Estate Co. (NYSE: XIN), Rydex Real Estate Fund H (Nasdaq: RYHRX), T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund (Nasdaq: TRREX), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH), Lennar (NYSE: LEN), K.B. Homes (NYSE: KBH), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR), Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA), MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC), Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH), Brookfield Homes (NYSE: BHS), Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF), M/I Homes (NYSE: MHO), Orleans Homebuilders (AMEX: OHB), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSE: VNQ), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Williams Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), AMEX: VAZ, AMEX: NKR, AMEX: MZA, AMEX: NXE, AMEX: NFZ, Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Avatar Holdings (Nasdaq: AVTR), Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR), Avalonbay Communities (NYSE: AVB), UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR), Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), Senior Housing Properties (NYSE: SNH), BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Mid-America Apartment (NYSE: MAA), Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS), American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC), Colonial Properties (NYSE: CLP), American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC), Sun Communities (NYSE: SUI), Associated Estates (NYSE: AEC), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE: PMT), Two Harbors (AMEX: TWO).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.